Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Air Force
4–1 · Ours #98 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–7FinalWe had AF 31 – NIU 21
Northern Illinois
0–5 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.AF 74%AF won
AF 74%AF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at AF −12.5.AF −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.5 · AF covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.8.48final 35 · under by 13
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NIU +10Lbeat the close by 3.0
NIU +10Lbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Evan Medders0/0 · 0 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −1.94
- Comp %
- —
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by Kemper Hodges
Taron Dickens13/20 · 140 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0545th pct
- Comp %
- 65.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Air Forceoffense | Played like AF +14.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorthern Illinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | 64.7%▲22.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 64.7%▼16.2 | 4th |
| 76th | +0.26▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▲0.02 | 24th |
| 0th | −2.34▼2.60 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −2.34▲2.77 | 100th |
| 87th | +0.34▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.28 | 13th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Northern Illinoisoffense | defenseAir Force | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.5%▲17.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.5%▼9.4 | 35th |
| 41st | −0.01▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.06 | 59th |
| 50th | +0.05▲0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.04 | 50th |
| 35th | −0.06▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.20 | 65th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Air ForceAF | Northern IllinoisNIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2851st | Own 2210th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6880th | 4325th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.780th | −11.720th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts35th | −0.8 pts12th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. AF +6.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.2, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | +6.378th | −6.322nd |
Season so far
Air Force4–1 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Duquesne34–0covered −31.5
L
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2W
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5W
vs Navy14–9covered −3
vs Navy14–9covered −3Wat Northern Illinois28–7covered −7
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7Northern Illinois0–5 · 30th-hardest schedule
L
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-game
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-gameLvs Illinois State24–28missed +2.5QB change mid-game
L
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5L
at Georgia State14–35missed +10
at Georgia State14–35missed +10Lvs Air Force7–28missed +7
vs Air Force7–28missed +7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is