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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Northern Illinois

0–5 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−18.9
Rank
134
Résumé
133
Projected wins
2.1▼ 1.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at IowaIOWANIU +27.3NIU +31.5L 0–409NIU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Illinois StateIllinois StateNIU −30.4NIU +2.5L 24–2847
Sat, Sep 199/19at ArizonaARIZNIU +29.6NIU +35.0L 17–4238NIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Georgia StateGASTNIU +17.5NIU +9.0L 14–3563GAST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Air ForceAFNIU +10.5NIU +10.0L 7–2833NIU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at WyomingWYONIU +7.7NIU +8.0NIU +7.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Hawai'iHAWNIU +4.9—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at UNLVUNLVNIU +17.1—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at San José StateSJSUNIU +8.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14NevadaNEVNIU +9.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at North Dakota StateNDSUNIU +24.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UTEPUTEPNIU −3.5—wk 13

Model on NIU games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 3 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.10–5 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.5
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0199th
Success rate40.5%100th
Pass EPA−0.04112th
Rush EPA+0.0774th
Explosive rate11.5%100th
Quality-drive rate48.9%85th
Points per quality drive1.9138th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.18121st
Success allowed50.5%135th
Pass EPA allowed+0.21112th
Rush EPA allowed+0.16119th
Explosive allowed13.7%106th
Havoc rate8.1%94th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.5125th
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. +0.5
Field position margin−1.1 yd89th
Hidden points / game−2.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.90.9 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 1–4
Rush rate over expected−5.0%108th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−18.9134th
Schedule played+4.530th
Schedule remaining−8.0111th
Full schedule−3.483rd
Pregame expected wins0.5of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 134th · −18.9Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Northern Illinoisoff +0.01 99thdef +0.18 allowed · 121st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.