Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Nevada
2–3 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–13FinalWe had NEV 31 – UTEP 22
UTEP
1–5 · Ours #134 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NEV 70%NEV won
NEV 70%NEV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEV −9.NEV −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.5 · NEV covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.8.48.5final 43 · under by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTEP +9.5Llost 0.5 to the close
UTEP +9.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Carter Jones11/19 · 82 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3212th pct
- Comp %
- 57.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Raymond Moore III16/26 · 132 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1824th pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Nevadaoffense | Played like NEV +16.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUTEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.3%▲1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.3%▲12.6 | 41st |
| 44th | +0.01▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.29 | 56th |
| 28th | −0.17▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.71 | 72nd |
| 59th | +0.11▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.01 | 41st |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| UTEPoffense | defenseNevada | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | 19.0%▼13.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 19.0%▲22.1 | 97th |
| 13th | −0.25▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.32 | 87th |
| 26th | −0.21▲0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.35 | 75th |
| 11th | −0.30▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.33 | 89th |
| 79th | 0▲1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NevadaNEV | UTEPUTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2635th | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts92nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7083rd | 4224th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +5.165th | −5.136th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts74th | +1.2 pts97th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTEP +3.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.4, kicking −1.3, 4th downs +1.1. | −3.831st | +3.869th |
Season so far
Nevada2–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
L
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5L
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5Wat UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10UTEP1–5 · 26th-hardest schedule
L
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41Wvs Texas Southern51–10covered −27
L
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5L
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11L
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5Lvs Nevada13–30missed +10
vs Nevada13–30missed +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is