Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
North Dakota State
5–1 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–13FinalWe had NDSU 27 – UNLV 21
UNLV
4–2 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 66%UNLV won
NDSU 66%UNLV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NDSU −3.5.NDSU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.5 · UNLV covered by 8.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.3.48final 20 · under by 28
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NDSU −3.5Llost 1.0 to the close
NDSU −3.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Nathan Hayes12/22 · 124 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1328th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jackson Arnold8/16 · 77 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2914th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Played like UNLV +4.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUNLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.4%▼7.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.4%▲5.6 | 75th |
| 10th | −0.28▼0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.27 | 90th |
| 27th | −0.19▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.15 | 73rd |
| 8th | −0.35▼0.37 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.35 | 92nd |
| 1st | 4▼3.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲2.8 | 99th |
| UNLVoffense | defenseNorth Dakota State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | 37.1%▲0.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.1%▼0.4 | 66th |
| 14th | −0.23▼0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.04 | 86th |
| 19th | −0.29▼0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▼0.08 | 81st |
| 20th | −0.20▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.12 | 80th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota StateNDSU | UNLVUNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2742nd | Own 2954th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts15th | −1.3 pts20th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6162nd | 6264th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.454th | −1.446th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.4 pts2nd | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNLV +10.4: turnovers +7.8, field position +0.6, kicking +0.1, 4th downs +1.9. | −10.410th | +10.490th |
Season so far
North Dakota State5–1 · 130th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17Lat UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5UNLV4–2 · 108th-hardest schedule
L
vs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5W
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5L
at North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3W
at Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5W
vs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1Wvs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is