Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Nevada
2–3 · Ours #103Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–28Our projected score
North Dakota State
5–1 · Ours #46Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 77%
NDSU 77%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.NDSU −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −15
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.42.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 43.7 · opened 46.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.NEV +14.5-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.7% EV
NEV +14.5-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.7% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Carter JonesSophomore · 4 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.16126th
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Nathan HayesSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1362nd
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseNevada | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | +0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.02 | 63rd |
| 88th | 41.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.9% | 51st |
| 63rd | +0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.03 | 72nd |
| 107th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.02 | 70th |
| 30th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.9% | 34th |
| Nevadaoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNorth Dakota State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | +0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.17 | 5th |
| 85th | 41.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 37.5% | 35th |
| 130th | −0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.33 | 3rd |
| 14th | +0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 31st |
| 98th | 11.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.2% | 41st |
Team stats
| North Dakota StateNDSU | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +4.35th | +3.120th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +0.371st | −3.9123rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 59%30th | 47%89th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.65101st | 4.0075th |
| Time of possession | 29:3651st | 27:0699th |
| Plays per game | 6489th | 6583rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +6 | −5 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 9 – 15 | 9 – 4 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 11.7%26th | 8.3%90th |
Season so far
Nevada2–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
L
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5L
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5W
at UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10North Dakota State5–1 · 130th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
Wat Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is