North Dakota State
5–1 · Ours #46Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–25Our projected score
New Mexico
4–1 · Ours #32Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UNM 68%
UNM 68%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. UNM −7.6
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 43.1
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Nathan HayesSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1362nd
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Toa Fa'avaeSophomore · 4 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1363rd
- Comp %
- 56.2
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| New Mexicooffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNorth Dakota State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | +0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.17 | 5th |
| 62nd | 43.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 37.5% | 35th |
| 88th | +0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.33 | 3rd |
| 41st | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 31st |
| 36th | 14.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.2% | 41st |
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseNew Mexico | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | +0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.29 | 1st |
| 88th | 41.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 31.2% | 3rd |
| 63rd | +0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.34 | 2nd |
| 107th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.23 | 3rd |
| 30th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.9% | 16th |
Team stats
| New MexicoUNM | North Dakota StateNDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.825th | +4.35th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +18.11st | +0.371st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 73%1st | 59%30th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.2160th | 3.65101st |
| Time of possession | 33:183rd | 29:3651st |
| Plays per game | 6575th | 6489th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +14 | +6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 19 | 9 – 15 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 17.2%1st | 11.7%26th |
Season so far
North Dakota State5–1 · 130th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5New Mexico4–1 · 133rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-game
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-gameWvs Mercyhurst70–7covered −42.5
L
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21W
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5W
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is