San José State
3–3 · Ours #115Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
19–30Our projected score
Air Force
4–1 · Ours #85Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.AF 75%
AF 75%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. AF −11.2
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.2
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Luke WeaverSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0776th
- Comp %
- 62.9
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 13
Evan MeddersSophomore · 1 start this year · 3 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.12
- Comp %
- 42.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Air Forceoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseSan José State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | +0.16 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 59th |
| 25th | 48.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 42.3% | 86th |
| 90th | +0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.04 | 47th |
| 24th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 88th |
| 112th | 10.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.4% | 44th |
| San José Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseAir Force | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 127th | −0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 43rd |
| 112th | 39.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 37.6% | 36th |
| 99th | 0.00 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.08 | 36th |
| 132nd | −0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.04 | 79th |
| 103rd | 11.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.2% | 85th |
Team stats
| Air ForceAF | San José StateSJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −1.7111th | +0.468th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +1.955th | −3.9122nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 53%64th | 45%104th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.9615th | 3.25113th |
| Time of possession | 35:421st | 27:06100th |
| Plays per game | 7311th | 6847th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +1 | −3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 6 | 12 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.4%84th | 10.2%46th |
Season so far
San José State3–3 · 109th-hardest schedule
L
at USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5W
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4Air Force4–1 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Duquesne34–0covered −31.5
L
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2W
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5W
vs Navy14–9covered −3
vs Navy14–9covered −3W
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is