Board · Sat, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 0
at
Our call
No priceNMSU +32.0 · covers 50.9% · neither book is on our number, so this bet has no priced EVPreseason modelNo 2026 games are in the book yet. This line starts from last season and the offseason evidence shown below.
Spread
Our lineFSU −23.1
MarketFSU −32as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
Pick
NMSU +32no DK/FD price
NMSU +32no DK/FD priceFlorida State wins by 32 or more in 49% of the games we simulate.
Total
Our total55.1
Market54.0as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
PickOver 54.0no DK/FD price
The game clears 54.0 in 49% of the games we simulate.
Win probability
New Mexico State 9%Florida State 91%
Shape of the game
Margin
Florida State by 32+49%Points
Over 5449%
Line movement
 |  | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | O/U | Spread | O/U | |
| Tue Aug 1111:29PM | −31.5 | — | −31.5 | — |
| Fri Aug 149:24PM | −31.5 | 53.5 | −31.5 | 52.5 |
| Thu Aug 209:05AM | −31.5 | 53.5 | −30.5 | 52.5 |
| Tue Aug 257:05AM | −31.5 | 53.5 | −30.5 | 53.5 |
| Wed Aug 267:05AM | −30.5 | 52.5 | −30.5 | 52.5 |
| Thu Aug 277:05AM | −30.5 | 53.5 | −31.5 | 52.5 |
| Thu Aug 2712:05PM | −31.5 | 53.5 | −32.5 | 52.5 |
| Fri Aug 287:05AM | −31.5 | 53.5 | −32.5 | 53.5 |
| Fri Aug 2812:05PM | −31.5 | 53.5 | −32.5 | 53.5 |
First pull, latest pull, and every pull where DraftKings or FanDuel moved — unchanged pulls are not repeated. Times ET; a snapshot cadence, not a live price.
Florida State is the favourite, so the minus number is theirs. The line has come 0.5 point away from our −23.1.
The rosters
what the early-season model weighsNMSUFSU2025 season3–8 · −11.64–7 · +5.2
Roster talent336128th85717th
Portal net stars+838th−68136th
Recruiting class129132nd25216th
Roster talent is weighted trailing recruiting classes until this year's talent composite publishes. Portal counts moves through Aug 15. Ranks are FBS-wide.
Prediction by cfb_best at code revision 7ebdce4, run Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT on 9,503 training games. Once a game kicks off the numbers freeze and grade as-is.