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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College

New Mexico State

0–0 FBS · Conference USA · 2026
Rating
−11.6
Rank
118
Résumé
—
Our picks
—
2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View New Mexico State's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
3.8projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)24%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%

Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 118thFinal

Playoff picture

from 10,000 season simulations
Reach title game7%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.3
3–8 vs 4.3
One-score games flipped
5–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+2
expected −2.0

Luck: −2.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 118th · −10.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−3.7126th
Offense play value−4.5122nd
Defense efficiency−1.9107th
Defense play value+1.447th
Drive finishing−0.8112th
Field position−0.590th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0115th
Third-down conversion−0.0127th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.1 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.9
35th
Havoc rate
10.4%
81st
Rush rate over expected
−8.6%
126th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceNMSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
New Mexico Stateoff −0.08 114thdef +0.02 56th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–2
Pick was the dog5–2
Home / away side3–1 / 4–3
Average gap to the close+3.8 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.7121st
Full season−5.7121st

Upcoming

our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
DateOpponentOur lineMarketOur call
Sat, Aug 29at Florida StateNMSU +23.1NMSU +32.0NMSU +32.0No price
Sat, Sep 5MercyhurstNMSU −26.8NMSU −25.5NMSU −25.5No price
Sat, Sep 12at Hawai'iNMSU +12.7—no line
Sat, Sep 26New MexicoNMSU +1.6—no line
Thu, Oct 1Western KentuckyNMSU +5.0—no line
Wed, Oct 7at Florida InternationalNMSU +7.4—no line
Wed, Oct 21at Sam HoustonNMSU −2.5—no line
Wed, Oct 28Jacksonville StateNMSU +7.1—no line
Sat, Nov 7LibertyNMSU +12.0—no line
Sat, Nov 14at Missouri StateNMSU +7.2—no line
Sat, Nov 21DelawareNMSU +2.4—no line
Sat, Nov 28at Middle TennesseeNMSU +2.5—no line

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.