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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

New Mexico State

2–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−11.5
Rank
121
Résumé
122
Projected wins
4.6▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at Florida StateFSUNMSU +26.7NMSU +31.0L 17–3437NMSU · W
Sat, Sep 59/5MercyhurstMercyhurstNMSU −26.9NMSU −29.0W 51–1484
Sat, Sep 129/12at Hawai'iHAWNMSU +9.6NMSU +10.0L 19–2944HAW · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26New MexicoUNMNMSU +11.6NMSU +13.5L 18–4224NMSU · L
Thu, Oct 110/1Western KentuckyWKUNMSU +2.1NMSU −2.5W 34–1359WKU · L
Wed, Oct 710/7at Florida InternationalFIUNMSU +7.3NMSU +5.5L 3–2247FIU · W
Wed, Oct 2110/21at Sam HoustonSHSUNMSU −1.6—wk 8
Wed, Oct 2810/28Jacksonville StateJXSTNMSU +6.2—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7LibertyLIBNMSU +15.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Missouri StateMOSTNMSU −0.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21DelawareDELNMSU +1.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Middle TennesseeMTSUNMSU −1.0—wk 13

Model on NMSU games: 2–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 4 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.62–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 3.8
Bowl (6+)7%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game5%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.04120th
Success rate39.7%109th
Pass EPA−0.13122nd
Rush EPA+0.0676th
Explosive rate13.0%62nd
Quality-drive rate42.4%113th
Points per quality drive3.1120th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0144th
Success allowed40.3%64th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0678th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0925th
Explosive allowed12.4%88th
Havoc rate11.4%30th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.7128th
Turnover margin−6125th · exp. −5.5
Field position margin−5.3 yd129th
Hidden points / game−6.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.12.1 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−4.9%107th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.5121st
Schedule played−2.999th
Schedule remaining−7.9110th
Full schedule−5.7112th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 121st · −11.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNMSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
New Mexico Stateoff −0.04 120thdef −0.01 allowed · 44th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.