Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
App State
3–2 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had APP 23 – ECU 32
East Carolina
3–2 · Ours #78 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ECU 73%APP won
ECU 73%APP wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ECU −9.5.ECU −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.8 · APP covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.2.56final 51 · under by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ECU −9Llost 2.5 to the close
ECU −9Llost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Malachi Singleton20/28 · 267 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3169th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Mitch Griffis21/38 · 230 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 55.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App Stateoffense | Played like ECU +9.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseEast Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.6%▲1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.6%▼0.7 | 68th |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.09 | 57th |
| 73rd | +0.31▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.66 | 27th |
| 18th | −0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.24 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| East Carolinaoffense | defenseApp State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.9%▲18.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.9%▼9.4 | 31st |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.18 | 40th |
| 41st | −0.04▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.06 | 60th |
| 85th | +0.31▲0.56 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.35 | 15th |
| 16th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.3 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App StateAPP | East CarolinaECU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3688th | Own 2314th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts85th | −1.9 pts11th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7185th | 7389th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.426th | +9.474th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.7 pts86th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. APP +13.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.7, kicking +2.4, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +1.5. | +13.095th | −13.05th |
Season so far
App State3–2 · 136th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
Wat East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5W
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5L
at NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13L
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5East Carolina3–2 · 85th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28Lvs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5Wat Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is