App State

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at CCU · Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

3–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season

Rating

−7.8

Rank

105

Résumé

Projected wins

6.2▲ 2.1 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5MaineMaineAPP −26.3APP −20.5W 55–395

Sat, Sep 129/12

at East CarolinaECUAPP +9.8APP +9.0W 27–2442ECU · L

Sat, Sep 199/19

CharlotteCLTAPP −16.4APP −19.0W 26–2161CLT · W

Sat, Sep 269/26

at NC StateNCSUAPP +20.1APP +13.0L 31–4151NCSU · L

Sat, Oct 1010/10

Old DominionODUAPP −9.6APP −9.5L 3–1042APP · L

Fri, Oct 1610/16

at Coastal CarolinaCCUAPP −3.4APP −1.5APP −1.5Pass

Thu, Oct 2210/22

James MadisonJMUAPP +14.2—wk 8

Sat, Oct 3110/31

at Georgia SouthernGASOAPP +4.1—wk 9

Sat, Nov 711/7

Georgia StateGASTAPP +5.2—wk 10

Sat, Nov 1411/14

at MarshallMRSHAPP PK—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

UL MonroeULMAPP −15.7—wk 12

Fri, Nov 2711/27

at South AlabamaUSAAPP +5.0—wk 13

Model on APP games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 1–0 · home 0–3, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

6.23–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.1

Bowl (6+)42%

9+ wins1%

11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game3%

Win conference1%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play+0.0296th

Success rate39.0%117th

Pass EPA+0.1551st

Rush EPA−0.13129th

Explosive rate14.1%40th

Quality-drive rate54.2%59th

Points per quality drive3.888th

Defense

EPA allowed−0.0435th

Success allowed39.9%60th

Pass EPA allowed−0.1129th

Rush EPA allowed+0.0373rd

Explosive allowed10.2%40th

Havoc rate12.8%9th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game+2.128th

Turnover margin+711th · exp. +5.5

Field position margin+6.1 yd18th

Hidden points / game+1.4banked

Luck, wins+0.22.8 earned

One-score record2–1flipped 2–3

Rush rate over expected−5.5%113th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−7.8105th

Schedule played−9.3136th

Schedule remaining−6.6100th

Full schedule−7.6126th

Pregame expected wins2.0of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 105th · −7.8Week 6

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

App Stateoff +0.02 96thdef −0.04 allowed · 35th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.