Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
South Alabama
4–2 · Ours #91 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–45FinalWe had USA 22 – UK 36
Kentucky
5–1 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UK 80%UK won
UK 80%UK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UK −21.UK −20.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.1 · UK covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.3.54final 66 · over by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jared Hollins23/43 · 266 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2023rd pct
- Comp %
- 53.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Kenny Minchey19/25 · 177 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0831st pct
- Comp %
- 76.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Alabamaoffense | Played like UK +26.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.0%▼13.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.0%▲13.2 | 75th |
| 39th | −0.02▼0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.12 | 61st |
| 29th | −0.16▼0.88 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.21 | 71st |
| 69th | +0.18▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.01 | 31st |
| 41st | 1▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
| Kentuckyoffense | defenseSouth Alabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 60.0%▲17.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.0%▼10.6 | 7th |
| 89th | +0.41▲0.45 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.41▲0.01 | 11th |
| 29th | −0.15▼0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.63 | 71st |
| 100th | +0.83▲0.91 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.83▼0.51 | 1st |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South AlabamaUSA | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3270th | Own 3584th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.7 pts13th | −1.3 pts19th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5342nd | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.46th | +24.494th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts62nd | −0.7 pts14th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USA +2.7: field position −1.2, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs +3.1. | +2.765th | −2.736th |
Season so far
South Alabama4–2 · 116th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
L
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5W
vs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7Lat Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5W
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5W
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3Kentucky5–1 · 2nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9W
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5Wvs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5W
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is