South Alabama

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at MRSH · Tue, Oct 20 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

4–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season

Rating

−5.3

Rank

Résumé

Projected wins

7.3▲ 1.9 vs preseason

CFP odds

<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5SE LouisianaSE LouisianaUSA −26.8USA −13.5W 39–1443

Sat, Sep 129/12

at TulaneTULNUSA +12.9USA +10.5L 24–2842TULN · L

Sat, Sep 199/19

OhioOHIOUSA −8.6USA −6.0W 41–3643USA · L

Sat, Sep 269/26

at KentuckyUKUSA +14.1USA +20.5L 21–4525USA · L

Sat, Oct 310/3

UL MonroeULMUSA −18.9USA −14.0W 52–3545USA · W

Thu, Oct 810/8

at Arkansas StateARSTUSA +2.4USA +1.5W 56–4949ARST · L

Tue, Oct 2010/20

at MarshallMRSHUSA −2.8—wk 8

Sat, Oct 3110/31

Louisiana TechLTUSA −2.8—wk 9

Sat, Nov 711/7

at LouisianaULUSA +4.6—wk 10

Sat, Nov 1411/14

TroyTROYUSA −4.0—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

at Southern MissUSMUSA −2.5—wk 12

Fri, Nov 2711/27

App StateAPPUSA −5.0—wk 13

Model on USA games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–3, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

7.34–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.4

Bowl (6+)73%

9+ wins4%

11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game23%

Win conference7%

Make the CFP<1%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play+0.1735th

Success rate44.2%57th

Pass EPA+0.388th

Rush EPA+0.0680th

Explosive rate12.5%75th

Quality-drive rate58.2%31st

Points per quality drive4.730th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.38138th

Success allowed51.1%136th

Pass EPA allowed+0.37136th

Rush EPA allowed+0.39138th

Explosive allowed16.2%133rd

Havoc rate8.1%93rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game+3.712th

Turnover margin+94th · exp. +4.5

Field position margin+4.7 yd29th

Hidden points / game+5.0banked

Luck, wins+1.42.6 earned

One-score record2–1flipped 3–3

Rush rate over expected+9.6%8th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−5.394th

Schedule played−5.1117th

Schedule remaining−7.0103rd

Full schedule−6.1115th

Pregame expected wins2.5of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 94th · −5.3Week 6

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

South Alabamaoff +0.17 35thdef +0.38 allowed · 138th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.