Week 0 report · Sat, Aug 29 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Jacksonville State
4–2 · Ours #92 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–33FinalWe had JXST 27 – NDSU 28
North Dakota State
5–1 · unrated
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 52%NDSU won
NDSU 52%NDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NDSU −6.5.NDSU −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.9 · NDSU covered by 19.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.7.46.5final 40 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JXST +7Lbeat the close by 0.5
JXST +7Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Caden Creel12/23 · 85 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.456th pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Nathan Hayes14/22 · 160 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2159th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | Played like NDSU +21.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorth Dakota State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.0%▼18.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.0%▲8.5 | 85th |
| 12th | −0.26▼0.47 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.09 | 88th |
| 7th | −0.51▼0.89 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.51▲0.20 | 93rd |
| 34th | −0.08▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.04 | 66th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| North Dakota Stateoffense | defenseJacksonville State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.6%▲4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.6%▲0.3 | 43rd |
| 62nd | +0.14▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.10 | 38th |
| 64th | +0.21▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.17 | 36th |
| 59th | +0.10▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.07 | 42nd |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville StateJXST | North Dakota StateNDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3378th | Own 229th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts15th | +3.6 pts99th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4020th | 5546th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.019th | +12.081st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +1.0 pts94th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NDSU +7.6: turnovers +2.6, field position −3.9, kicking +3.6, 4th downs +1.9, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −7.618th | +7.682nd |
Season so far
Jacksonville State4–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
Lat North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3North Dakota State5–1 · 130th-hardest schedule
Wvs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Aug 29, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is