Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Jacksonville State

4–2 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−4.3
Rank
90
Résumé
66
Projected wins
8.0▲ 1.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at North Dakota StateNDSUJXST +0.9JXST +7.0L 7–3325JXST · L
Sat, Sep 59/5Eastern KentuckyEastern KentuckyJXST −30.5JXST −22.5W 49–779
Sat, Sep 129/12at OhioOHIOJXST PKJXST +2.0L 27–2963JXST · Push
Sat, Sep 199/19Georgia SouthernGASOJXST −8.8JXST −3.0W 31–2768JXST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Middle TennesseeMTSUJXST −8.8JXST −9.0W 23–1360JXST · W
Wed, Oct 710/7at Kennesaw StateKENNJXST −6.2JXST −3.0W 27–2652JXST · L
Tue, Oct 1310/13Florida InternationalFIUJXST −4.5JXST −3.0JXST −2.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7Sam HoustonSHSUJXST −13.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2811/28at DelawareDELJXST −2.1—wk 13

Model on JXST games: 2–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 0–1 · home 2–0, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +4.7 · closer than the market 0 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.04–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)89%
9+ wins11%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game55%
Win conference19%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1931st
Success rate48.0%34th
Pass EPA+0.3318th
Rush EPA+0.0681st
Explosive rate12.2%84th
Quality-drive rate54.4%57th
Points per quality drive4.071st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0684th
Success allowed43.3%93rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0168th
Rush EPA allowed+0.1099th
Explosive allowed11.9%79th
Havoc rate9.3%66th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.373rd
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. +0.5
Field position margin+1.7 yd57th
Hidden points / game−1.6gave up
Luck, wins+0.53.5 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−1.7%68th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.390th
Schedule played−5.2118th
Schedule remaining−10.6130th
Full schedule−8.2130th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 90th · −4.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUJXSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Jacksonville Stateoff +0.19 31stdef +0.06 allowed · 84th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.