Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
New Mexico
4–1 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
42–18FinalWe had UNM 29 – NMSU 18
New Mexico State
2–4 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNM 76%UNM won
UNM 76%UNM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNM −13.5.UNM −11.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.6 · UNM covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.3.47.5final 60 · over by 12.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Toa Fa'avae10/17 · 177 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4681st pct
- Comp %
- 58.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Trey Hedden7/19 · 106 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1923rd pct
- Comp %
- 36.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q3 by Adam Damante
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexicooffense | Played like UNM +20.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNew Mexico State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.9%▲3.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.9%▼8.0 | 31st |
| 85th | +0.35▲0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.38 | 15th |
| 95th | +0.77▲0.75 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.77▼0.76 | 5th |
| 65th | +0.14▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.27 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| New Mexico Stateoffense | defenseNew Mexico | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 34.7%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.7%▼5.4 | 74th |
| 33rd | −0.06▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.35 | 67th |
| 42nd | −0.02▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.52 | 58th |
| 29th | −0.12▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▼0.14 | 71st |
| 5th | 3▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲0.3 | 95th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New MexicoUNM | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 47100th | Own 228th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.7 pts4th | −2.5 pts5th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4833rd | 4935th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.857th | −2.843rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.5 pts99th | +0.1 pts60th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNM +19.3: turnovers +7.8, field position +9.0, kicking −0.2, 4th downs +1.9, penalty first downs +0.8. | +19.399th | −19.31st |
Season so far
New Mexico4–1 · 133rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-game
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-gameWvs Mercyhurst70–7covered −42.5
L
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21Wat New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5W
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5New Mexico State2–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5Lvs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is