Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Jacksonville State
4–2 · Ours #97 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–29FinalWe had JXST 28 – OHIO 28
Ohio
4–2 · Ours #106 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JXST 51%OHIO won
JXST 51%OHIO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OHIO −1.5.OHIO −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.5.50.5final 56 · over by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JXST +2Pmatched the close
JXST +2Pmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Caden Creel18/24 · 265 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4278th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Matt Vezza10/13 · 80 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1453rd pct
- Comp %
- 76.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Nick Poulos in Q2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | Played like JXST +7.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOhio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 49.2%▲5.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.2%▼5.0 | 26th |
| 72nd | +0.22▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.10 | 28th |
| 87th | +0.53▲0.41 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.53▼0.31 | 13th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.12 | 57th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Ohiooffense | defenseJacksonville State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.8%▼2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.8%▼2.5 | 36th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.04 | 53rd |
| 35th | −0.09▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.20 | 65th |
| 58th | +0.10▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.06 | 42nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville StateJXST | OhioOHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4699th | Own 48100th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.1 pts9th | −1.7 pts12th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6162nd | 5956th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.175th | −10.125th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts40th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JXST +0.2: turnovers −2.6, field position −0.7, kicking −0.3, 4th downs −0.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +0.251st | −0.249th |
Season so far
Jacksonville State4–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
Lat Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3Ohio4–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
L
at Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24Wvs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-game
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-gameL
at South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
W
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5W
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is