Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Ball State
1–5 · Ours #128 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
15–51FinalWe had BALL 15 – LIB 37
Liberty
5–1 · Ours #106 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LIB 91%LIB won
LIB 91%LIB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LIB −14.5.LIB −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.4 · LIB covered by 21.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.9.49final 66 · over by 17
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.LIB −14.5Wmatched the close
LIB −14.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Keldric Luster10/21 · 93 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 47.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Deshawn Purdie13/20 · 211 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7093rd pct
- Comp %
- 65.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball Stateoffense | Played like LIB +21.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLiberty | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | 42.5%▲11.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.5%▼10.1 | 47th |
| 50th | +0.06▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.11 | 50th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.06 | 57th |
| 60th | +0.11▲0.33 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.29 | 40th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Libertyoffense | defenseBall State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 55.6%▲4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.6%▼7.7 | 13th |
| 94th | +0.47▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.19 | 7th |
| 95th | +0.74▲0.62 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.74▼0.32 | 5th |
| 73rd | +0.20▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.12 | 28th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball StateBALL | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2953rd | Own 3688th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.4 pts6th | +1.0 pts74th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4020th | 4529th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −15.915th | +15.985th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts80th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LIB +5.4: field position +2.6, kicking +2.4, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs +0.8. | −5.425th | +5.475th |
Season so far
Ball State1–5 · 32nd-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
Lat Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5L
at Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35Liberty5–1 · 131st-hardest schedule
L
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5Wvs Gardner-Webb24–23missed −28.5
Wvs Ball State51–15covered −14.5
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5W
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5W
at Delaware30–14covered −7
at Delaware30–14covered −7W
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is