Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Ohio
4–2 · Ours #117 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
36–41FinalWe had OHIO 24 – USA 32
South Alabama
4–2 · Ours #77 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USA 70%USA won
USA 70%USA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USA −4.5.USA −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.6 · OHIO covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.1.49final 77 · over by 28
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USA −6Lbeat the close by 1.0
USA −6Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Matt Vezza12/16 · 113 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4177th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q4 by Levi Davis
Jared Hollins13/20 · 192 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8497th pct
- Comp %
- 65.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohiooffense | Played like OHIO +7.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Alabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 47.5%▼0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.5%▲5.0 | 32nd |
| 94th | +0.47▲0.46 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.07 | 6th |
| 77th | +0.35▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.35 | 23rd |
| 98th | +0.64▲0.59 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.64▼0.27 | 3rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| South Alabamaoffense | defenseOhio | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.3%▼1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.3%▲1.1 | 41st |
| 80th | +0.29▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.19 | 20th |
| 96th | +0.84▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.84▼0.71 | 4th |
| 55th | +0.07▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.02 | 45th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OhioOHIO | South AlabamaUSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3379th | Own 3481st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.6 pts63rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5956th | 7083rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.066th | −6.034th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts31st | +0.7 pts87th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USA +5.6: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.2, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs −1.5. | −5.625th | +5.675th |
Season so far
Ohio4–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
L
at Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24W
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-game
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-gameLat South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
W
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5W
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5South Alabama4–2 · 116th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
L
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5Wvs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7L
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5W
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5W
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is