Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Massachusetts
4–2 · Ours #110 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–6FinalWe had MASS 21 – SAC 28
Sacramento State
1–5 · Ours #131 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SAC 69%MASS won
SAC 69%MASS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MASS −6.MASS −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +8 · MASS covered by 24
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.49final 41 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
William Watson III11/16 · 101 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1857th pct
- Comp %
- 68.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jackson Sharman24/43 · 221 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2419th pct
- Comp %
- 55.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Massachusettsoffense | Played like MASS +11.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSacramento State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.5%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.5%▲2.2 | 55th |
| 75th | +0.26▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.18 | 25th |
| 62nd | +0.18▼0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.02 | 38th |
| 84th | +0.31▲0.43 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.36 | 16th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Sacramento Stateoffense | defenseMassachusetts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77th | 50.0%▲11.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼7.1 | 23rd |
| 28th | −0.10▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.15 | 72nd |
| 24th | −0.23▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.15 | 76th |
| 59th | +0.10▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.01 | 41st |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MassachusettsMASS | Sacramento StateSAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2742nd | Own 2634th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts8th | −1.8 pts12th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4224th | 5036th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.579th | −11.521st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.1 pts37th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MASS +11.1: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.3, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +0.2, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +11.192nd | −11.19th |
Season so far
Massachusetts4–2 · 137th-hardest schedule
W
at Rutgers37–21covered +29
at Rutgers37–21covered +29Wvs Sacred Heart37–10covered −23.5
Wvs Stonehill36–14missed −31
Wat Sacramento State35–6covered −5
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5L
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5L
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5Sacramento State1–5 · 113th-hardest schedule
Lat Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9Wvs Mississippi Valley State52–0covered −38.5
L
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5L
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25Lvs Massachusetts6–35missed +5
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5L
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is