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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Massachusetts

4–2 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−10.5
Rank
114
Résumé
108
Projected wins
6.4▲ 4.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3at RutgersRUTGMASS +30.2MASS +29.5W 37–2167RUTG · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Sacred HeartSacred HeartMASS −31.7MASS −23.5W 37–1087
Sat, Sep 199/19StonehillStonehillMASS −29.0MASS −31.0W 36–1466
Sat, Sep 269/26at Sacramento StateSACMASS +8.0MASS −5.5W 35–674SAC · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Eastern MichiganEMUMASS −6.6MASS −6.5L 14–3835MASS · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Miami (OH)M-OHMASS +4.2MASS +2.5L 19–2057M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at BuffaloBUFMASS +4.5MASS +6.5MASS +6.5Pass
Fri, Oct 2310/23at UConnCONNMASS +20.5—wk 8
Wed, Nov 411/4Ball StateBALLMASS −6.1—wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11at ToledoTOLMASS +16.4—wk 11
Wed, Nov 1811/18AkronAKRMASS −6.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Bowling GreenBGSUMASS +2.9—wk 13

Model on MASS games: 0–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 0–1 · home 0–3, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +4.4 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.44–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 2.0
Bowl (6+)17%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1162nd
Success rate42.8%73rd
Pass EPA+0.1550th
Rush EPA+0.0868th
Explosive rate13.8%49th
Quality-drive rate57.4%39th
Points per quality drive4.262nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0824th
Success allowed38.9%49th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1914th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0272nd
Explosive allowed8.8%15th
Havoc rate9.2%68th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.26th
Turnover margin+527th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin+2.1 yd52nd
Hidden points / game−0.5gave up
Luck, wins−0.54.5 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected+2.3%38th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−10.5114th
Schedule played−11.6137th
Schedule remaining−9.8127th
Full schedule−10.5138th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 114th · −10.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMASSgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Massachusettsoff +0.11 62nddef −0.08 allowed · 24th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.