Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Toledo
4–2 · Ours #63 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
39–24FinalWe had TOL 35 – BALL 12
Ball State
1–5 · Ours #133 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TOL 92%TOL won
TOL 92%TOL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TOL −18.TOL −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −23 · BALL covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.7.52.5final 63 · over by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TOL −19.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
TOL −19.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
John Alan Richter19/35 · 201 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0645th pct
- Comp %
- 54.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Keldric Luster21/32 · 224 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0846th pct
- Comp %
- 65.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Toledooffense | Played like TOL +2.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBall State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▲2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▲9.4 | 49th |
| 58th | +0.11▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.25 | 42nd |
| 50th | +0.06▼0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.53 | 50th |
| 66th | +0.15▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.05 | 34th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| Ball Stateoffense | defenseToledo | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | 37.7%▲5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.7%▼3.3 | 64th |
| 50th | +0.05▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.03 | 50th |
| 57th | +0.14▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.05 | 43rd |
| 33rd | −0.08▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.09 | 67th |
| 16th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ToledoTOL | Ball StateBALL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3063rd | Own 2635th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts84th | −1.9 pts11th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8699th | 6162nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.656th | −2.644th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | −0.3 pts31st |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 049th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TOL +10.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.4, kicking +2.4, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs −1.5, safeties +2.9. | +10.289th | −10.211th |
Season so far
Toledo4–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5Wat Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21L
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5Ball State1–5 · 32nd-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5L
at Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3Lvs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is