Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Western Michigan
4–2 · Ours #86 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–17FinalWe had WMU 30 – BUF 15
Buffalo
3–3 · Ours #128 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WMU 83%WMU won
WMU 83%WMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WMU −16.WMU −12.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.3 · BUF covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 44.5.45final 37 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WMU −13.5Llost 1.0 to the close
WMU −13.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Broc Lowry19/24 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2968th pct
- Comp %
- 79.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jason Wright11/18 · 170 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Michiganoffense | Played like WMU +5.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBuffalo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 48.3%▲8.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.3%▼7.6 | 29th |
| 57th | +0.10▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.06 | 43rd |
| 72nd | +0.29▲0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.06 | 28th |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.14 | 62nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
| Buffalooffense | defenseWestern Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 43.1%▲20.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.1%▼0.3 | 45th |
| 41st | −0.01▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.12 | 60th |
| 37th | −0.07▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.32 | 63rd |
| 48th | +0.02▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.04 | 52nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western MichiganWMU | BuffaloBUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2422nd | Own 2525th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.7 pts90th | +0.6 pts61st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6059th | 6573rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +5.064th | −5.036th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts21st | 0.0 pts41st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BUF +0.8: field position +0.2, kicking −0.8, 4th downs +0.7, penalty first downs +0.8. | −0.847th | +0.853rd |
Season so far
Western Michigan4–2 · 106th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5Wvs Monmouth49–14covered −29.5
W
at Rice28–21missed −8.5
at Rice28–21missed −8.5L
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5Wat Buffalo20–17missed −12.5
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5W
vs Kent State38–7covered −14
vs Kent State38–7covered −14Buffalo3–3 · 81st-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
L
at Florida International20–33missed +10QB change mid-game
at Florida International20–33missed +10QB change mid-gameL
at Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
Lvs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5W
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is