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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at CMU · Sat, Oct 17 · 1:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Western Michigan

4–2 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−2.7
Rank
79
Résumé
56
Projected wins
8.6▲ 2.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at MichiganMICHWMU +21.9WMU +27.5L 12–1331WMU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12MonmouthMonmouthWMU −30.1WMU −29.5W 49–1472
Sat, Sep 199/19at RiceRICEWMU −11.5WMU −10.5W 28–2154RICE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Boise StateBOISWMU −2.5WMU +8.0L 7–3219WMU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at BuffaloBUFWMU −15.3WMU −13.5W 20–1758WMU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Kent StateKENTWMU −18.6WMU −13.5W 38–762WMU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Central MichiganCMUWMU −15.1WMU −7.0WMU −6.5No call
Sat, Oct 2410/24at ToledoTOLWMU PK—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31Bowling GreenBGSUWMU −18.0—wk 9
Tue, Nov 1011/10at AkronAKRWMU −18.5—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17Eastern MichiganEMUWMU −14.5—wk 12
Tue, Nov 2411/24Miami (OH)M-OHWMU −11.4—wk 13

Model on WMU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 2–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +5.4 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.64–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins22%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game73%
Win conference39%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0391st
Success rate41.9%84th
Pass EPA−0.02105th
Rush EPA+0.0678th
Explosive rate9.4%126th
Quality-drive rate51.8%72nd
Points per quality drive4.165th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0474th
Success allowed41.9%83rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1091st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0159th
Explosive allowed9.8%31st
Havoc rate5.8%131st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.515th
Turnover margin+711th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+3.4 yd40th
Hidden points / game+4.3banked
Luck, wins−0.14.0 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+4.2%29th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−2.779th
Schedule played−3.8106th
Schedule remaining−10.9132nd
Full schedule−7.7127th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 79th · −2.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Western Michiganoff +0.03 91stdef +0.04 allowed · 74th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.