Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Central Michigan
3–3 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–31FinalWe had CMU 18 – OHIO 30
Ohio
4–2 · Ours #102 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OHIO 77%OHIO won
OHIO 77%OHIO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OHIO −3.5.OHIO −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.2 · OHIO covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.6.46final 45 · under by 1
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Angel Flores14/20 · 112 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3013th pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Nick Poulos11/18 · 158 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4278th pct
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Central Michiganoffense | Played like OHIO +29.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOhio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.0%▲3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▲6.5 | 56th |
| 35th | −0.05▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.24 | 65th |
| 27th | −0.18▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.57 | 73rd |
| 49th | +0.03▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.07 | 51st |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Ohiooffense | defenseCentral Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98th | 66.7%▲23.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 66.7%▼20.1 | 2nd |
| 93rd | +0.44▲0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.35 | 8th |
| 94th | +0.70▲0.82 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.70▼0.81 | 6th |
| 83rd | +0.29▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.01 | 18th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Central MichiganCMU | OhioOHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2636th | Own 3378th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.3 pts51st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 253rd | 4529th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.629th | +7.671st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.2 pts4th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OHIO +2.3: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.3, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +1.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | −2.338th | +2.362nd |
Season so far
Central Michigan3–3 · 86th-hardest schedule
L
at New Mexico7–38missed +11QB change mid-game
at New Mexico7–38missed +11QB change mid-gameWvs Colgate13–10missed −18.5
W
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1L
at Miami3–52missed +41QB change mid-game
at Miami3–52missed +41QB change mid-gameW
vs Akron41–17covered −7
vs Akron41–17covered −7Lat Ohio14–31missed +2.5
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5Ohio4–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
L
at Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24W
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-game
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-gameL
at South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
W
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5Wvs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is