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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs WMU · Sat, Oct 17 · 1:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Central Michigan

3–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−15.8
Rank
130
Résumé
85
Projected wins
5.5▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at New MexicoUNMCMU +8.2CMU +10.5L 7–3820CMU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12ColgateColgateCMU −31.9CMU −18.5W 13–1054
Sat, Sep 199/19WyomingWYOCMU −4.6CMU −1.5W 24–1069CMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at MiamiMIACMU +45.7CMU +42.0L 3–523MIA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3AkronAKRCMU −3.8CMU −6.5W 41–1791AKR · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at OhioOHIOCMU +12.2CMU +3.5L 14–3121OHIO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Western MichiganWMUCMU +15.1CMU +7.0WMU −6.5No call
Sat, Oct 2410/24Miami (OH)M-OHCMU +6.0—wk 8
Wed, Nov 411/4at Eastern MichiganEMUCMU +3.5—wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11Sacramento StateSACCMU −7.4—wk 11
Wed, Nov 1811/18at BuffaloBUFCMU +5.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Ball StateBALLCMU −0.8—wk 13

Model on CMU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 0–2 · home 3–0, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +5.2 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.53–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)22%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.00105th
Success rate40.2%103rd
Pass EPA−0.44138th
Rush EPA+0.2022nd
Explosive rate8.4%133rd
Quality-drive rate32.7%136th
Points per quality drive4.170th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0896th
Success allowed47.0%126th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0641st
Rush EPA allowed+0.21129th
Explosive allowed12.1%81st
Havoc rate5.7%133rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.6108th
Turnover margin+249th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin−3.7 yd120th
Hidden points / game−3.6gave up
Luck, wins+0.32.7 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected+14.2%6th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−15.8130th
Schedule played−1.187th
Schedule remaining−10.6129th
Full schedule−6.3116th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 130th · −15.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Central Michiganoff −0.00 105thdef +0.08 allowed · 96th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.