Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 1:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Western Michigan
4–2 · Ours #79Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–14Our projected score
Central Michigan
3–3 · Ours #130Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.WMU 82%
WMU 82%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.WMU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.1 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.43oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 43.1 · opened 42.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Broc LowryJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.02105th
- Comp %
- 68.8
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Angel FloresSenior · 4 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.33
- Comp %
- 59.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Central Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseWestern Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106th | 0.00 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 74th |
| 105th | 40.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 41.9% | 83rd |
| 138th | −0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.10 | 89th |
| 22nd | +0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.01 | 59th |
| 133rd | 8.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.8% | 31st |
| Western Michiganoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseCentral Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | +0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.08 | 95th |
| 84th | 41.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 47.0% | 126th |
| 105th | −0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.06 | 41st |
| 78th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.21 | 129th |
| 126th | 9.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.1% | 80th |
Team stats
| Central MichiganCMU | Western MichiganWMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −1.6108th | +3.515th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −3.7120th | +3.440th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 33%136th | 52%72nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.0671st | 4.1066th |
| Time of possession | 27:06101st | 28:3073rd |
| Plays per game | 57131st | 60118th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +2 | +7 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 12 | 2 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 5.7%134th | 5.8%132nd |
Season so far
Western Michigan4–2 · 106th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5
at Michigan12–13covered +27.5Wvs Monmouth49–14covered −29.5
W
at Rice28–21missed −8.5
at Rice28–21missed −8.5L
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5
vs Boise State7–32missed +8.5W
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5
at Buffalo20–17missed −12.5W
vs Kent State38–7covered −14
vs Kent State38–7covered −14Central Michigan3–3 · 86th-hardest schedule
L
at New Mexico7–38missed +11QB change mid-game
at New Mexico7–38missed +11QB change mid-gameWvs Colgate13–10missed −18.5
W
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1L
at Miami3–52missed +41QB change mid-game
at Miami3–52missed +41QB change mid-gameW
vs Akron41–17covered −7
vs Akron41–17covered −7L
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is