Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Toledo
4–2 · Ours #84Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–22Our projected score
Eastern Michigan
4–3 · Ours #107Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TOL 70%
TOL 70%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TOL −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.1 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.53.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.5 · opened 52.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.TOL −6.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.4% EV
TOL −6.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.4% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
John Alan RichterJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2728th
- Comp %
- 63.2
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Noah KimSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- 0.0098th
- Comp %
- 61.3
- TD
- 9
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Eastern Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseToledo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | 0.00 | 53rd |
| 98th | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 35.0% | 20th |
| 117th | −0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.10 | 87th |
| 73rd | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.10 | 21st |
| 125th | 9.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.2% | 8th |
| Toledooffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseEastern Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 83rd |
| 79th | 42.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 41.5% | 75th |
| 30th | +0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.13 | 97th |
| 79th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.02 | 50th |
| 27th | 15.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.9% | 94th |
Team stats
| Eastern MichiganEMU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.490th | −2.2115th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −3.1111th | −0.379th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 45%104th | 55%50th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.3151st | 3.7889th |
| Time of possession | 28:5465th | 27:06102nd |
| Plays per game | 6665th | 6844th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | +4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 10 | 7 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.8%78th | 8.4%83rd |
Season so far
Toledo4–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5W
at Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21L
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5Eastern Michigan4–3 · 132nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9L
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5Lat Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
W
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5W
at Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is