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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs TOL · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Eastern Michigan

4–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−8.9
Rank
107
Résumé
99
Projected wins
6.0▲ 1.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29Sacramento StateSACEMU +1.9EMU −9.5W 28–1757SAC · L
Fri, Sep 49/4San José StateSJSUEMU −0.8EMU −3.5L 21–2742SJSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at Michigan StateMSUEMU +16.1EMU +17.5L 7–3527EMU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at WisconsinWISEMU +14.7EMU +24.5L 10–5415EMU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26LindenwoodLindenwoodEMU −27.4EMU −24.0W 29–371
Sat, Oct 310/3at MassachusettsMASSEMU +6.6EMU +6.5W 38–1466MASS · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at AkronAKREMU −7.3EMU −6.5W 25–2340EMU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17ToledoTOLEMU +8.1EMU +6.5TOL −6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at OhioOHIOEMU +11.1—wk 8
Wed, Nov 411/4Central MichiganCMUEMU −3.5—wk 10
Tue, Nov 1711/17at Western MichiganWMUEMU +14.5—wk 12
Tue, Nov 2411/24Kent StateKENTEMU −8.7—wk 13

Model on EMU games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–1, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +4.1 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.04–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)32%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01106th
Success rate40.9%97th
Pass EPA−0.06117th
Rush EPA+0.0773rd
Explosive rate9.6%125th
Quality-drive rate45.1%104th
Points per quality drive4.351st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0683rd
Success allowed41.5%75th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1398th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0250th
Explosive allowed12.9%94th
Havoc rate8.8%78th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.490th
Turnover margin069th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin−3.1 yd111th
Hidden points / game−0.8gave up
Luck, wins+0.23.8 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected−7.4%124th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.9107th
Schedule played−8.7132nd
Schedule remaining−8.4116th
Full schedule−8.5133rd
Pregame expected wins3.0of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 107th · −8.9Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUEMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Eastern Michiganoff −0.01 106thdef +0.06 allowed · 83rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.