Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Louisiana Tech
3–2 · Ours #102 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
19–36FinalWe had LT 19 – BAY 32
Baylor
4–1 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BAY 77%BAY won
BAY 77%BAY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BAY −18.BAY −20oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.4 · LT covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.8.50.5final 55 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.LT +17.5Wlost 2.5 to the close
LT +17.5Wlost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Trey Kukuk25/44 · 223 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1228th pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Nate Bennett20/23 · 210 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0240th pct
- Comp %
- 87.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisiana Techoffense | Played like BAY +7.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBaylor | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 30.9%▼5.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.9%▲6.7 | 83rd |
| 39th | −0.02▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.07 | 61st |
| 39th | −0.05▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.02 | 62nd |
| 47th | +0.01▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.19 | 53rd |
| 16th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.3 | 84th |
| Bayloroffense | defenseLouisiana Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 39.1%▼0.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.1%▲1.2 | 58th |
| 53rd | +0.07▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07 | 47th |
| 68th | +0.25▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.26 | 32nd |
| 38th | −0.04▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.20 | 62nd |
| 16th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▼0.3 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisiana TechLT | BaylorBAY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3480th | Own 3687th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.5 pts6th | +0.2 pts50th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6880th | 6470th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.128th | +8.172nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.2 pts4th | −0.2 pts34th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BAY +4.8: field position +0.8, kicking +1.9, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +0.8. | −4.829th | +4.871st |
Season so far
Louisiana Tech3–2 · 20th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
L
at LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35Lat Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20W
vs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1W
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3Baylor4–1 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
Wvs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20W
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5W
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is