Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Army
3–2 · Ours #81 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–31FinalWe had ARMY 24 – LT 24
Louisiana Tech
3–2 · Ours #105 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LT 51%LT won
LT 51%LT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LT +3.5.LT −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · LT covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.7.46final 60 · over by 14
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.LT +2Wbeat the close by 3.0
LT +2Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Cale Hellums12/24 · 151 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1755th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Trey Kukuk16/22 · 185 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1957th pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Armyoffense | Played like LT +7.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisiana Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 47.1%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.1%▼9.4 | 33rd |
| 76th | +0.26▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.26 | 24th |
| 60th | +0.17▼0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.15 | 41st |
| 85th | +0.32▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.28 | 15th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.7 | 59th |
| Louisiana Techoffense | defenseArmy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77th | 50.0%▲20.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼5.9 | 23rd |
| 89th | +0.40▲0.64 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.20 | 11th |
| 78th | +0.37▲0.66 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.10 | 22nd |
| 93rd | +0.43▲0.61 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.27 | 8th |
| 79th | 0▲2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArmyARMY | Louisiana TechLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2210th | Own 2526th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −1.5 pts14th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7083rd | 5648th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.426th | +9.474th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 698th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts40th | −0.2 pts35th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARMY +1.5: turnovers −2.6, field position −1.0, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +0.2, penalty first downs +3.9. | +1.558th | −1.542nd |
Season so far
Army3–2 · 107th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
L
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5W
at Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5Lat Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1W
vs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4Louisiana Tech3–2 · 20th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
L
at LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35L
at Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20Wvs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1W
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is