Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Arkansas State
2–4 · Ours #100 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–23FinalWe had ARST 23 – UL 29
Louisiana
4–2 · Ours #66 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UL 63%UL won
UL 63%UL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UL −5.UL −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.4 · ARST covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.1.49.5final 43 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARST +6.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
ARST +6.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Trey Owens20/31 · 206 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1654th pct
- Comp %
- 64.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Lunch Winfield18/21 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0847th pct
- Comp %
- 85.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas Stateoffense | Played like UL +11.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.4%▼6.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.4%▼3.3 | 44th |
| 44th | +0.01▼0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.06 | 56th |
| 58th | +0.16▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.02 | 42nd |
| 20th | −0.20▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▼0.04 | 80th |
| 79th | 0▲1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Louisianaoffense | defenseArkansas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 56.5%▲20.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.5%▼8.8 | 11th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.04 | 34th |
| 51st | +0.08▲0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.29 | 49th |
| 75th | +0.22▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.10 | 25th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas StateARST | LouisianaUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3271st | Own 2421st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts58th | +1.8 pts91st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5342nd | 6264th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.619th | +12.682nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts21st | +0.4 pts74th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARST +1.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.6, kicking −0.9, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs −1.5. | +1.558th | −1.542nd |
Season so far
Arkansas State2–4 · 87th-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19W
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5Lat Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3Louisiana4–2 · 127th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
L
at USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31W
vs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7W
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5Wvs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5L
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is