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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arkansas State

2–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−7.1
Rank
101
Résumé
118
Projected wins
5.5▲ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at MemphisMEMARST +12.8ARST +8.5L 24–4238MEM · W
Sat, Sep 129/12West GeorgiaWest GeorgiaARST −33.2ARST −31.5W 52–761
Sat, Sep 199/19at TCUTCUARST +17.0ARST +20.5L 7–3127ARST · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Kennesaw StateKENNARST −9.1ARST −4.5W 17–1461ARST · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at LouisianaULARST +5.4ARST +6.5L 20–2339ARST · W
Thu, Oct 810/8South AlabamaUSAARST −2.4ARST −1.5L 49–5652ARST · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Southern MissUSMARST −1.7ARST −7.0USM +6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Georgia StateGASTARST +3.0—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7UL MonroeULMARST −18.5—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Coastal CarolinaCCUARST −5.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Louisiana TechLTARST +2.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28TroyTROYARST −3.4—wk 13

Model on ARST games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +1.5 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.52–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)21%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1255th
Success rate50.3%14th
Pass EPA+0.1840th
Rush EPA+0.0583rd
Explosive rate14.2%37th
Quality-drive rate56.1%44th
Points per quality drive4.166th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.18120th
Success allowed47.6%127th
Pass EPA allowed+0.22114th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15114th
Explosive allowed14.9%122nd
Havoc rate6.3%123rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.388th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+0.7 yd64th
Hidden points / game−0.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.72.6 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−4.0%96th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.1101st
Schedule played−1.388th
Schedule remaining−8.8121st
Full schedule−5.4105th
Pregame expected wins1.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 101st · −7.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUARSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arkansas Stateoff +0.12 55thdef +0.18 allowed · 120th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.