Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Arkansas State
2–4 · Ours #101Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–29Our projected score
Southern Miss
1–4 · Ours #120Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ARST 55%
ARST 55%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ARST −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.7 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.62.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 59.0 · opened 57.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.USM +6.5+100 FanDuel49% to cover · -1.7% EV
USM +6.5+100 FanDuel49% to cover · -1.7% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Trey OwensJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1751st
- Comp %
- 68.6
- TD
- 9
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
Landry LyddySenior · 3 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2435th
- Comp %
- 62.6
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Southern Missoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseArkansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | +0.13 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.18 | 120th |
| 58th | 44.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 47.6% | 127th |
| 57th | +0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.22 | 114th |
| 43rd | +0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.15 | 114th |
| 61st | 13.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.9% | 122nd |
| Arkansas Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSouthern Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.18 | 123rd |
| 14th | 50.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 45.3% | 113th |
| 40th | +0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.16 | 102nd |
| 83rd | +0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.20 | 126th |
| 37th | 14.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.7% | 121st |
Team stats
| Southern MissUSM | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.1114th | −0.388th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −3.5118th | +0.764th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 46%96th | 56%44th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.65100th | 4.0967th |
| Time of possession | 27:1298th | 29:3650th |
| Plays per game | 7028th | 59127th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −4 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 7 | 10 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.3%86th | 6.3%124th |
Season so far
Arkansas State2–4 · 87th-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19W
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3Southern Miss1–4 · 69th-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
L
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5L
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5L
at Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is