LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs ARST · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Southern Miss

1–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−11.5
Rank
120
Résumé
123
Projected wins
4.0▼ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Alcorn StateAlcorn StateUSM −27.6USM −19.5W 49–388
Sat, Sep 129/12at AuburnAUBUSM +20.3USM +30.0L 8–4312USM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19UConnCONNUSM −2.5USM +3.5L 20–4824USM · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at TulaneTULNUSM +16.3USM +18.5L 21–2458USM · W
Tue, Oct 610/6at TroyTROYUSM +0.7USM +10.5L 34–5552USM · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Arkansas StateARSTUSM +1.7USM +7.0USM +6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24LouisianaULUSM +4.4—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at UL MonroeULMUSM −9.6—wk 9
Thu, Nov 511/5James MadisonJMUUSM +16.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Louisiana TechLTUSM +6.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21South AlabamaUSAUSM +2.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Old DominionODUUSM +1.3—wk 13

Model on USM games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +7.3 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.01–4 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.3
Bowl (6+)4%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1351st
Success rate44.2%58th
Pass EPA+0.1357th
Rush EPA+0.1343rd
Explosive rate13.1%61st
Quality-drive rate46.0%97th
Points per quality drive3.6100th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.18123rd
Success allowed45.3%113th
Pass EPA allowed+0.16102nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.20125th
Explosive allowed14.7%121st
Havoc rate8.3%86th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.1114th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin−3.5 yd118th
Hidden points / game−9.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.71.7 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−4.0%95th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.5120th
Schedule played+0.269th
Schedule remaining−6.299th
Full schedule−3.888th
Pregame expected wins1.5of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 120th · −11.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUSMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Southern Missoff +0.13 51stdef +0.18 allowed · 123rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.