Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Georgia Southern
2–4 · Ours #103 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–24FinalWe had GASO 28 – CCU 27
Coastal Carolina
2–4 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.GASO 53%GASO won
GASO 53%GASO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at GASO −1.5.GASO −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.1 · GASO covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.53.5final 55 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CCU +2.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
CCU +2.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Max Johnson17/28 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0240th pct
- Comp %
- 60.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Deuce Bailey19/33 · 228 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3014th pct
- Comp %
- 57.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Southernoffense | Played like GASO +1.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCoastal Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.6%▲2.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.6%▲3.1 | 40th |
| 40th | −0.02▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.18 | 61st |
| 46th | +0.02▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.19 | 54th |
| 36th | −0.06▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.23 | 65th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | defenseGeorgia Southern | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 39.7%▲3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.7%▲4.6 | 57th |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.19 | 64th |
| 18th | −0.30▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.62 | 82nd |
| 77th | +0.24▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.20 | 23rd |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia SouthernGASO | Coastal CarolinaCCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3167th | Own 2526th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.1 pts21st | +1.4 pts82nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5648th | 6880th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +8.673rd | −8.627th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.2 pts64th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CCU 0.0: turnovers −5.2, field position −2.2, kicking +1.8, 4th downs −0.1, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | 0.050th | 0.051st |
Season so far
Georgia Southern2–4 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5L
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5Wat Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2L
vs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7Coastal Carolina2–4 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
L
at Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5Lvs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2W
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is