Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Coastal Carolina
2–4 · Ours #116 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–21FinalWe had CCU 24 – MRSH 31
Marshall
3–3 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MRSH 66%CCU won
MRSH 66%CCU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MRSH −2.5.MRSH −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.8 · CCU covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.58.5final 48 · under by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MRSH −2.5Lbeat the close by 2.0
MRSH −2.5Lbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Deuce Bailey8/18 · 73 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.437th pct
- Comp %
- 44.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Zion Turner18/27 · 219 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5185th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | Played like MRSH +15.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMarshall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 28.6%▼10.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.6%▲22.0 | 88th |
| 23rd | −0.14▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.43 | 77th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.98 | 91st |
| 42nd | −0.01▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.07 | 58th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Marshalloffense | defenseCoastal Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 47.4%▲5.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.4%▼0.4 | 32nd |
| 56th | +0.09▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.05 | 44th |
| 28th | −0.17▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.43 | 73rd |
| 90th | +0.38▲0.36 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.32 | 11th |
| 5th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.8 | 95th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | MarshallMRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3688th | Own 2850th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.6 pts27th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6367th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −22.98th | +22.993rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −1.0 pts6th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CCU +14.4: turnovers +10.4, field position +2.7, kicking −0.4, 4th downs +1.7. | +14.497th | −14.43rd |
Season so far
Coastal Carolina2–4 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
L
at Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5L
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2Wat Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5Marshall3–3 · 110th-hardest schedule
L
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5W
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13W
at Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
L
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5Lvs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is