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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Marshall

3–3 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−12.3
Rank
126
Résumé
100
Projected wins
5.8▼ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Penn StatePSUMRSH +20.9MRSH +24.5L 0–4516MRSH · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Middle TennesseeMTSUMRSH −8.5MRSH −15.0W 28–2662MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Missouri StateMOSTMRSH −3.9MRSH −3.0W 30–2444MOST · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Gardner-WebbGardner-WebbMRSH −32.4MRSH −24.5W 36–3550
Sat, Oct 310/3at James MadisonJMUMRSH +22.6MRSH +18.5L 17–4530JMU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Coastal CarolinaCCUMRSH −6.8MRSH −2.5L 21–2767MRSH · L
Tue, Oct 2010/20South AlabamaUSAMRSH +2.8—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Old DominionODUMRSH +1.2—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Georgia SouthernGASOMRSH +5.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14App StateAPPMRSH PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Georgia StateGASTMRSH +7.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at UL MonroeULMMRSH −9.4—wk 13

Model on MRSH games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.83–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)29%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1257th
Success rate44.3%56th
Pass EPA+0.0776th
Rush EPA+0.1825th
Explosive rate13.0%64th
Quality-drive rate51.5%74th
Points per quality drive3.2119th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.20127th
Success allowed44.4%104th
Pass EPA allowed+0.31133rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0889th
Explosive allowed14.0%113th
Havoc rate7.5%105th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.178th
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. −7.0
Field position margin−0.5 yd82nd
Hidden points / game−3.9gave up
Luck, wins+0.52.5 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 1–5
Rush rate over expected−1.6%67th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.3126th
Schedule played−4.3111th
Schedule remaining−8.1115th
Full schedule−6.4119th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 126th · −12.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMRSHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Marshalloff +0.12 57thdef +0.20 allowed · 127th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.