Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Georgia Southern
2–4 · Ours #100 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–31FinalWe had GASO 22 – JXST 30
Jacksonville State
4–2 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JXST 71%JXST won
JXST 71%JXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JXST −3.JXST −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.8 · JXST covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.2.52.5final 58 · over by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JXST −3Wbeat the close by 0.5
JXST −3Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Max Johnson23/33 · 187 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0831st pct
- Comp %
- 69.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Caden Creel17/24 · 194 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4177th pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Southernoffense | Played like JXST +11.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJacksonville State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 47.2%▲5.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.2%▼4.2 | 33rd |
| 44th | +0.01▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.07 | 57th |
| 35th | −0.08▼0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.19 | 65th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.06 | 43rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | defenseGeorgia Southern | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▼3.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▲2.2 | 50th |
| 79th | +0.28▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.23 | 21st |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.27 | 19th |
| 66th | +0.16▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.11 | 34th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia SouthernGASO | Jacksonville StateJXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3166th | Own 2210th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.1 pts77th | +0.6 pts62nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7287th | 4833rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.133rd | +6.167th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +1.1 pts95th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JXST +3.0: field position −3.0, kicking −0.4, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −3.034th | +3.066th |
Season so far
Georgia Southern2–4 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5Lat Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5W
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2L
vs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7Jacksonville State4–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2Wvs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is