Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Georgia State
4–1 · Ours #67Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–33Our projected score
James Madison
6–0 · Ours #37Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.JMU 75%
JMU 75%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.JMU −12oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.7 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −11.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.58oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.6 · opened 57.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.GAST +12.5-112 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.5% EV
GAST +12.5-112 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.5% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Cameran BrownSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3811th
- Comp %
- 67.9
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Camden ColemanJunior · 5 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1264th
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| James Madisonoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseGeorgia State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | +0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.07 | 90th |
| 50th | 45.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 36.7% | 28th |
| 45th | +0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.06 | 42nd |
| 72nd | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.23 | 131st |
| 58th | 13.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 15.1% | 123rd |
| Georgia Stateoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseJames Madison | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | +0.19 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.02 | 41st |
| 38th | 47.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 35.4% | 22nd |
| 10th | +0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.01 | 62nd |
| 94th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.05 | 37th |
| 10th | 16.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.7% | 28th |
Team stats
| James MadisonJMU | Georgia StateGAST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +7.41st | +5.62nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +7.711th | −2.4102nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 57%42nd | 56%45th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.5040th | 4.7624th |
| Time of possession | 21:24136th | 32:488th |
| Plays per game | 6751st | 6933rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +9 | −4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 14 | 10 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 9.4%64th | 12.0%21st |
Season so far
Georgia State4–1 · 134th-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10W
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5James Madison6–0 · 120th-hardest schedule
W
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
W
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5Wat Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5W
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5W
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is