Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Liberty
5–1 · Ours #94 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–20FinalWe had LIB 23 – JMU 32
James Madison
6–0 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JMU 71%JMU won
JMU 71%JMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JMU −6.5.JMU −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.2 · JMU covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.4.50.5final 33 · under by 17.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JMU −6.5Wmatched the close
JMU −6.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Deshawn Purdie17/28 · 230 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3875th pct
- Comp %
- 60.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
JC Evans7/9 · 61 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.39
- Comp %
- 77.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Camden Coleman
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Libertyoffense | Played like JMU +2.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJames Madison | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | 35.9%▼20.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.9%▲0.9 | 70th |
| 58th | +0.11▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.12 | 42nd |
| 76th | +0.34▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.39 | 24th |
| 33rd | −0.08▼0.40 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.07 | 67th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
| James Madisonoffense | defenseLiberty | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.0%▼7.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.0%▼4.4 | 63rd |
| 61st | +0.13▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.20 | 39th |
| 65th | +0.21▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.22 | 35th |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.25 | 44th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LibertyLIB | James MadisonJMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2848th | Own 2846th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts83rd | +1.5 pts85th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6470th | 5036th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.931st | +6.969th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts16th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LIB +1.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.1, kicking −0.1, 4th downs −0.9. | +1.760th | −1.740th |
Season so far
Liberty5–1 · 131st-hardest schedule
Lat James Madison13–20missed +6.5
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5Wvs Gardner-Webb24–23missed −28.5
W
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5W
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5W
at Delaware30–14covered −7
at Delaware30–14covered −7W
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5James Madison6–0 · 120th-hardest schedule
Wvs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
W
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5W
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5W
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is