Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 5:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Troy
3–2 · Ours #87Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–28Our projected score
Louisiana
4–2 · Ours #70Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UL 64%
UL 64%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.UL −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.6 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −4.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.49.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 50.7 · opened 48.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.UL −3.5-115 FanDuel52% to cover · -2.9% EV
UL −3.5-115 FanDuel52% to cover · -2.9% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Goose CrowderSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.05111th
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 9
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
Lunch WinfieldJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0293rd
- Comp %
- 72.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Louisianaoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseTroy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | +0.13 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 75th |
| 86th | 41.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 39.3% | 52nd |
| 92nd | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.14 | 98th |
| 19th | +0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.08 | 27th |
| 91st | 11.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 13.5% | 101st |
| Troyoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseLouisiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95th | +0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.02 | 61st |
| 81st | 42.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 42.9% | 91st |
| 119th | −0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.16 | 104th |
| 56th | +0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.17 | 10th |
| 75th | 12.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.1% | 55th |
Team stats
| LouisianaUL | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.177th | −2.4118th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +3.932nd | −5.4130th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 55%54th | 47%92nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4145th | 3.62102nd |
| Time of possession | 32:429th | 33:362nd |
| Plays per game | 6489th | 7312th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 14 | 10 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 7.8%101st | 10.9%38th |
Season so far
Troy3–2 · 103rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
L
at Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27L
at Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3W
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10Louisiana4–2 · 127th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
L
at USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31W
vs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7W
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5W
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5L
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is