Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Sam Houston
1–4 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–24FinalWe had SHSU 19 – TROY 33
Troy
3–2 · Ours #96 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TROY 80%TROY won
TROY 80%TROY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TROY −16.5.TROY −16.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.5 · SHSU covered by 13.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.3.52.5final 45 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SHSU +16.5Wmatched the close
SHSU +16.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Landyn Locke30/46 · 335 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2261st pct
- Comp %
- 65.2
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Goose Crowder12/24 · 165 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0341st pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam Houstonoffense | Played like SHSU +2.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTroy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 47.1%▲9.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.1%▼7.0 | 33rd |
| 42nd | 0.00▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.15 | 58th |
| 59th | +0.16▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▲0.10 | 41st |
| 6th | −0.41▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.42 | 94th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.7 | 59th |
| Troyoffense | defenseSam Houston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 33.3%▼11.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲19.4 | 77th |
| 42nd | 0.00▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.08 | 58th |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.23 | 53rd |
| 42nd | −0.02▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.34 | 58th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam HoustonSHSU | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 203rd | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.5 pts58th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7083rd | 6675th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.470th | −7.430th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts14th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TROY +7.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.4, kicking +0.3, 4th downs +0.9, penalty first downs −0.8. | −7.519th | +7.581st |
Season so far
Sam Houston1–4 · 57th-hardest schedule
Lat Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5L
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5Troy3–2 · 103rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
L
at Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27L
at Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3W
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is