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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Sam Houston

1–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−12.0
Rank
123
Résumé
121
Projected wins
3.8▲ 0.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at TroyTROYSHSU +14.5SHSU +16.5L 21–2450SHSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12TulsaTLSASHSU +2.0SHSU +14.0L 17–2351SHSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19NichollsNichollsSHSU −30.8SHSU −21.0W 59–096
Sat, Sep 269/26at Texas TechTTUSHSU +29.2SHSU +38.5L 14–4939SHSU · W
Thu, Oct 810/8at LibertyLIBSHSU +17.7SHSU +13.5L 3–3520LIB · W
Wed, Oct 1410/14Western KentuckyWKUSHSU +3.3SHSU +1.0WKU +1.5Pass
Wed, Oct 2110/21New Mexico StateNMSUSHSU +1.6—wk 8
Tue, Oct 2710/27at Missouri StateMOSTSHSU +2.6—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Jacksonville StateJXSTSHSU +13.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Kennesaw StateKENNSHSU +1.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Middle TennesseeMTSUSHSU −2.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Florida InternationalFIUSHSU +11.0—wk 13

Model on SHSU games: 4–0 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–0 · home 2–0, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +5.5 · closer than the market 3 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.81–4 banked, 7 to play · preseason 2.9
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.02114th
Success rate42.8%74th
Pass EPA+0.0681st
Rush EPA−0.14134th
Explosive rate10.0%117th
Quality-drive rate38.9%125th
Points per quality drive3.4106th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0433rd
Success allowed42.0%85th
Pass EPA allowed−0.325th
Rush EPA allowed+0.18123rd
Explosive allowed13.9%111th
Havoc rate11.3%31st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.0119th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−1.4 yd93rd
Hidden points / game−4.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.51.5 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected−8.3%128th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.0123rd
Schedule played+1.557th
Schedule remaining−9.7123rd
Full schedule−5.6111th
Pregame expected wins0.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 123rd · −12.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroyFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSHSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Sam Houstonoff −0.02 114thdef −0.04 allowed · 33rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.