Week 6 report · Thu, Oct 8 · 2026 Week 6
Sam Houston
1–4 · Ours #112 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–35FinalWe had SHSU 20 – LIB 38
Liberty
5–1 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LIB 86%LIB won
LIB 86%LIB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LIB −13.5.LIB −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.7 · LIB covered by 18.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.5.52.5final 38 · under by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.LIB −13.5Wmatched the close
LIB −13.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Landyn Locke20/30 · 138 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1626th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Deshawn Purdie10/14 · 114 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3170th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam Houstonoffense | Played like LIB +29.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLiberty | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 31.8%▼10.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.8%▲3.3 | 80th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.16 | 78th |
| 41st | −0.03▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.08 | 59th |
| 11th | −0.30▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.23 | 89th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Libertyoffense | defenseSam Houston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95th | 62.5%▲13.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 62.5%▼19.5 | 5th |
| 82nd | +0.32▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.35 | 18th |
| 51st | +0.08▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.29 | 49th |
| 92nd | +0.40▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.22 | 9th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam HoustonSHSU | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 216th | Own 2954th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts63rd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4427th | 4020th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −37.11st | +37.199th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.8 pts1st | 0.0 pts51st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SHSU +1.1: field position −2.7, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −2.3, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +1.155th | −1.145th |
Season so far
Sam Houston1–4 · 57th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5Lat Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5Liberty5–1 · 131st-hardest schedule
L
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5Wvs Gardner-Webb24–23missed −28.5
W
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5W
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5W
at Delaware30–14covered −7
at Delaware30–14covered −7Wvs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 8, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is