Liberty
5–1 · Ours #42Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–19Our projected score
New Mexico State
2–4 · Ours #121Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.LIB 82%
LIB 82%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. LIB −15.2
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.5
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| New Mexico Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseLiberty | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120th | −0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.09 | 22nd |
| 109th | 39.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 33.1% | 10th |
| 122nd | −0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.10 | 32nd |
| 76th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.08 | 29th |
| 62nd | 13.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.6% | 70th |
| Libertyoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseNew Mexico State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | +0.19 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 44th |
| 22nd | 48.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 40.3% | 64th |
| 41st | +0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.06 | 77th |
| 20th | +0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.09 | 25th |
| 17th | 15.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.4% | 88th |
Team stats
| New Mexico StateNMSU | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.7128th | +0.567th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −5.3129th | +4.927th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 42%113th | 55%56th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.07120th | 3.6698th |
| Time of possession | 27:1894th | 29:3655th |
| Plays per game | 6393rd | 6397th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −6 | +6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 7 | 4 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 11.4%30th | 11.3%33rd |
Season so far
Liberty5–1 · 131st-hardest schedule
L
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5Wvs Gardner-Webb24–23missed −28.5
W
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5W
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5W
at Delaware30–14covered −7
at Delaware30–14covered −7W
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5New Mexico State2–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is