Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Middle Tennessee
3–3 · Ours #112 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–23FinalWe had MTSU 22 – JXST 31
Jacksonville State
4–2 · Ours #93 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JXST 71%JXST won
JXST 71%JXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JXST −9.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. JXST −8.8
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close.—
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Roman Gagliano18/28 · 216 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1554th pct
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Caden Creel19/27 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2765th pct
- Comp %
- 70.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | Played like JXST +11.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJacksonville State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.1%▲6.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▲3.4 | 53rd |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.03 | 52nd |
| 52nd | +0.09▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.02 | 49th |
| 43rd | −0.01▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.06 | 57th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | defenseMiddle Tennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90th | 57.6%▲16.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.6%▼10.9 | 10th |
| 69th | +0.19▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.04 | 31st |
| 70th | +0.27▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.19 | 30th |
| 64th | +0.14▲0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.04 | 36th |
| 16th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Jacksonville StateJXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 181st | Own 2635th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.1 pts76th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5648th | 6675th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −14.617th | +14.683rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts63rd | +0.2 pts62nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MTSU +2.5: turnovers +5.2, field position −2.8, kicking −0.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | +2.563rd | −2.538th |
Season so far
Middle Tennessee3–3 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5Lat Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1Jacksonville State4–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5Wvs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is