Week 5 report · Thu, Oct 1 · 2026 Week 5
Western Kentucky
2–4 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–34FinalWe had WKU 28 – NMSU 26
New Mexico State
2–4 · Ours #125 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WKU 56%NMSU won
WKU 56%NMSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NMSU −1.5.NMSU −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.1 · NMSU covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.8.55.5final 47 · under by 8.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WKU +2.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
WKU +2.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Rodney Tisdale Jr.29/41 · 314 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1427th pct
- Comp %
- 70.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Adam Damante15/26 · 146 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2518th pct
- Comp %
- 57.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Kentuckyoffense | Played like NMSU +8.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNew Mexico State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24th | 33.8%▼0.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.8%▲9.6 | 76th |
| 18th | −0.19▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.30 | 82nd |
| 30th | −0.15▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.39 | 71st |
| 13th | −0.28▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.25 | 87th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| New Mexico Stateoffense | defenseWestern Kentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 36.7%▼2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.7%▲14.3 | 67th |
| 36th | −0.04▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.33 | 64th |
| 22nd | −0.25▼0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.53 | 78th |
| 62nd | +0.12▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.08 | 38th |
| 41st | 1▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western KentuckyWKU | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 193rd | Own 3686th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.8 pts92nd | +1.7 pts90th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7490th | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.342nd | +3.358th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.6 pts2nd | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NMSU +13.8: field position +5.7, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +2.5, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −13.84th | +13.896th |
Season so far
Western Kentucky2–4 · 46th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
Lat New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2W
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1New Mexico State2–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5Wvs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 1, 8:41 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is