Week 6 report · Wed, Oct 7 · 2026 Week 6
Jacksonville State
4–2 · Ours #85 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–26FinalWe had JXST 29 – KENN 23
Kennesaw State
1–4 · Ours #110 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JXST 65%JXST won
JXST 65%JXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JXST −3.JXST −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.2 · KENN covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.7.48.5final 53 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JXST −3Lmatched the close
JXST −3Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Caden Creel26/44 · 311 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3069th pct
- Comp %
- 59.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Rickie Collins24/35 · 293 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2261st pct
- Comp %
- 68.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | Played like JXST +1.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKennesaw State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.2%▲0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.2%▲5.2 | 38th |
| 61st | +0.14▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.06 | 39th |
| 73rd | +0.30▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.30 | 27th |
| 27th | −0.13▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.24 | 73rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | defenseJacksonville State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.3%▲0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.3%▲3.1 | 51st |
| 57th | +0.10▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.05 | 43rd |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.19 | 35th |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.12 | 64th |
| 16th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville StateJXST | Kennesaw StateKENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2737th | Own 2637th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts63rd | +0.5 pts57th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7389th | 6367th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.760th | −3.740th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 8100th | 594th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JXST +2.5: kicking +0.2, penalty first downs +2.3. | +2.563rd | −2.537th |
Season so far
Jacksonville State4–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineWat Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3Kennesaw State1–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5L
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5Lvs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 7, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is