Board · Tue, Oct 13 · 8:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Florida International
3–2 · Ours #92Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–27Our projected score
Jacksonville State
4–2 · Ours #90Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.JXST 61%
JXST 61%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.JXST −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.5 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −2.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.43.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 48.5 · opened 45.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.JXST −2.5-124 FanDuel54% to cover · -2.5% EV
JXST −2.5-124 FanDuel54% to cover · -2.5% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
JJ KohlJunior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.10119th
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 77 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Caden CreelJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3023rd
- Comp %
- 66.5
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseFlorida International | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | +0.19 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.18 | 4th |
| 34th | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 33.7% | 14th |
| 18th | +0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.17 | 18th |
| 81st | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.19 | 6th |
| 84th | 12.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 6.9% | 4th |
| Florida Internationaloffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseJacksonville State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 131st | −0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 84th |
| 120th | 38.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 43.3% | 93rd |
| 118th | −0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.01 | 68th |
| 131st | −0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 99th |
| 70th | 12.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.9% | 79th |
Team stats
| Jacksonville StateJXST | Florida InternationalFIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.373rd | +2.130th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +1.757th | −0.583rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 54%57th | 53%65th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.0371st | 2.45134th |
| Time of possession | 22:36133rd | 31:0032nd |
| Plays per game | 62111th | 7123rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −3 | −4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 8 | 12 – 8 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 9.3%66th | 10.9%37th |
Season so far
Florida International3–2 · 123rd-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7Jacksonville State4–2 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is